2 Reliability Methods in Linear Dynamics

Uncertainties in structural parameters and in the excitation, and consequently in the response, obviously affect the structural reliability considerably. In this work, recent developments in the reliability analysis for the treatment of uncertain linear structures subjected to dynamic loading are presented. Although any reliability problem could be solved in principle by Direct Monte Carlo simulation, this procedure is not a viable solution, due to the required sample size which is in the order of several millions for relevant reliability problems. Research, therefore focuses on methods where a by far smaller sample size is needed for a robust reliability estimate. Two classes of approaches have been developed in recent years. A general approach based on so called Subset Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling which allows ’black box’ applications and specific specialized Monte Carlo based approaches. The former are almost as generally applicable as Direct MCS is, while the latter are only applicable to specific type of reliability problems.